Between 2026-09-28 and 2026-09-30, US government aid disbursements to all 14 Pacific island countries dropped from $979,673 to exactly $0 in the IATI 90-day monitoring window — and have not returned. This page tracks that change using 41 consecutive daily snapshots from the Pacific Aid Signal.
Each point represents one daily snapshot. The 90-day trailing window captures disbursements from the prior 90 days. The drop to $0 occurred when USAID’s last Pacific transactions (dated late June 2026) aged out of the window.
USAID’s last published Pacific disbursements were dated around 30 June 2026. For 20 days (8–28 September), those transactions sat inside the 90-day trailing window. On 30 September, they aged out. No new US transactions replaced them.
The transition was abrupt — not because funding was withdrawn overnight, but because a batch of final disbursements all shared similar dates. When the trailing window moved past them, every US data point vanished simultaneously.
This is a data-confirmed absence, not a data lag. DFAT and FCDO are also absent from the 90-day window, but because they publish slowly (DFAT: 479+ days stale). US agencies were publishing current data until mid-2026 — then stopped.
The three Pacific nations with special US relationships are most exposed. The US was the majority or plurality lifetime funder for each:
Percentage of each country’s total recorded IATI aid that came from US government entities. All three now show $0 US in the current 90-day window.
| Country | US lifetime | US share | Current 90-day total | US 90-day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall Islands | $1,872.6M | 80.7% | $0.0M | $0 |
| Palau | $399.2M | 57.5% | $0.0M | $0 |
| Micronesia | $2,061.5M | 84.6% | $0.0M | $0 |
Seven or more US government entities had a Pacific presence on IATI. All went silent between late 2025 and mid-2026:
| Agency | Lifetime | Last data | Countries |
|---|---|---|---|
| Department of the Interior | $4,116.0M | 2025-12-31 | Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Palau |
| U.S. Agency for International Development | $539.1M | 2026-06-30 | Fiji, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Tonga |
| AidData | $446.2M | 2014-01-01 | Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Tonga |
| Millennium Challenge Corporation | $302.1M | 2019-08-31 | Vanuatu |
| Department of State | $65.5M | 2026-06-01 | Palau, Solomon Islands |
| Peace Corps | $41.8M | 2025-12-31 | Tonga, Vanuatu |
| Department of Defense | $19.4M | 2020-01-01 | Micronesia, Palau |
| Country | US lifetime | US share | Largest US agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Micronesia | $2,061.5M | 84.6% | Department of the Interior |
| Marshall Islands | $1,872.6M | 80.7% | Department of the Interior |
| Papua New Guinea | $609.2M | 5.2% | AidData |
| Palau | $399.2M | 57.5% | Department of the Interior |
| Vanuatu | $330.1M | 16.9% | Millennium Challenge Corporation |
| Tonga | $80.9M | 5.4% | AidData |
| Fiji | $66.4M | 1.9% | U.S. Agency for International Development |
| Samoa | $61.4M | 4.0% | AidData |
| Solomon Islands | $48.9M | 1.4% | Department of State |
With the US absent, 15 funders have active 90-day disbursements. The top five:
| # | Funder | 90-day total |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asian Development Bank | $37.3M |
| 2 | European Commission - Directorate-General for International Partnerships | $31.1M |
| 3 | New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade | $30.1M |
| 4 | United Nations Development Programme | $27.1M |
| 5 | UNICEF | $16.9M |
Note: Australia (the largest lifetime funder in 9 of 14 countries) and the UK (FCDO) are also absent from the 90-day window — not because they withdrew, but because they publish slowly. See data freshness.
USAID was effectively shut down in 2025 — 83% of programs canceled, staff reduced from 10,000 to approximately 15. Outside of protected Compact of Free Association agreements, the US provided $57.6M in development assistance to the Pacific in 2023 (CSIS). That non-Compact aid has been effectively eliminated across Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Palau, with specific programs including the Pacific American Fund ($35M over 5 years) and the Pacific Islands Microfinance Partnership ($50M) now frozen or cut.
The geopolitical consequences are documented. CSIS describes the US as an “increasingly disinterested and mercurial partner” whose withdrawal opens space for Chinese influence. Meanwhile, the Lowy Institute’s 2026 Pacific Aid Map shows Australia expanding its lead to $1.5B (37% of regional total), while China pivoted from large infrastructure loans ($360M/year in the 2010s) to high-frequency small grants — school upgrades, clinics, and other visible initiatives.
This analysis adds a specific, quantified dimension: the moment the withdrawal became visible in the only cross-funder financial dataset that covers the Pacific, tracked day by day across 14 countries. The finding connects to the IATI publication cadence analysis: only 35% of Pacific aid comes from funders with current data. The US withdrawal removes one of the few agencies that was publishing until recently, further narrowing the visible picture.
This analysis draws on 41 consecutive daily snapshots of IATI data for 14 Pacific island countries, collected by the Pacific Aid Signal from 2026-09-08 to 2026-10-22. Each snapshot queries the IATI Datastore for all transactions tagged to these countries, weighted by declared recipient-country share (excluding approximately 70% of tagged transactions that are for other countries).
The 90-day trailing window captures disbursements with value dates in the prior 90 days from each snapshot date. “Lifetime” figures include all transactions on record regardless of date. US agencies are identified by IATI publisher reference prefix “US-”.
All numbers on this page are computed from the stored snapshots and update when the page is re-rendered. Full methodology →