Dependency & Risk Analysis

How concentrated is each Pacific country’s aid portfolio? Who depends on a single funder, where is the data stale, and where are programmes ending faster than they start?

Data as at 2026-10-17. Concentration is measured on 90-day disbursements using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI): 10,000 = one funder holds everything; below 1,500 is unconcentrated. The composite risk score weights concentration (40%), data staleness (30%), and pipeline pressure (30%).

Regional summary

4407
Avg HHI across 14 countries
9
Countries >50% single funder
1
Countries >50% stale funders
0
Countries >20% activities ending

Regional average HHI across 36 issues: 4298 → 4407

Composite risk score

Countries ranked by a weighted score combining funder concentration (40%), data staleness (30%), and pipeline pressure (30%). Higher is more exposed.

Niue 67 Nauru 41 Palau 39 Cook Is 39 Kiribati 37 Tonga 35 Vanuatu 32 RMI 31 Tuvalu 30 Samoa 29 FSM 29 Sol Is 27 PNG 24 Fiji 24

Concentration vs. disbursement

Bubble size = number of active activities. Countries in the shaded zone depend on a single funder for more than half their recent aid. Large bubbles high up are the most exposed: big programmes reliant on one source.

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% $0 $11.4M $22.9M $34.3M $45.7M 90-day disbursements Top funder share (%) 50% single-funder threshold Niue Nauru Palau Cook Is Kiribati Tonga Vanuatu RMI Tuvalu Samoa FSM Sol Is PNG Fiji

Country profiles

Each card shows the funder mix (stacked bar), risk indicators, and key numbers. Ordered by composite risk score.

Niue High risk (67)

$9.0M
90-day disbursements
100%
Top funder share
10000
HHI concentration
1
Active funders
New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (100%)
Data: 6/10 funders stale (60%)
Pipeline: 15 ending, 1 new starts
Top funder: New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Aff at $9.0M
Stalest: UN Pooled Funds (1386 days, last 2022-12-31)

Nauru Moderate risk (41)

$3.3M
90-day disbursements
62%
Top funder share
5001
HHI concentration
4
Active funders
Asian Development Bank (62%) · New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (34%) · Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (4%) · World Health Organization (1%) · United Nations Development Programme (-0%)
Data: 4/10 funders stale (40%)
Pipeline: 20 ending, 0 new starts
Top funder: Asian Development Bank at $2.0M
Stalest: Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada (DFATD) (850 days, last 2024-06-19)

Palau Moderate risk (39)

$239K
90-day disbursements
80%
Top funder share
6649
HHI concentration
4
Active funders
Asian Development Bank (80%) · World Health Organization (15%) · New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (3%) · Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (1%)
Data: 2/10 funders stale (20%)
Pipeline: 14 ending, 0 new starts
Top funder: Asian Development Bank at $191K
Stalest: Department of Defense (2481 days, last 2020-01-01)

Cook Islands Moderate risk (39)

$1.7M
90-day disbursements
60%
Top funder share
4799
HHI concentration
5
Active funders
New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (60%) · Asian Development Bank (34%) · Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (5%) · World Health Organization (1%) · International Labour Organization (ILO) (0%)
Data: 4/10 funders stale (40%)
Pipeline: 13 ending, 1 new starts
Top funder: New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Aff at $1.0M
Stalest: Adaptation Fund (5311 days, last 2012-04-02)

Kiribati Moderate risk (37)

$5.3M
90-day disbursements
60%
Top funder share
4148
HHI concentration
6
Active funders
Asian Development Bank (60%) · New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (18%) · World Health Organization (15%) · United Nations Development Programme (4%) · International Labour Organization (ILO) (3%)
Data: 4/10 funders stale (40%)
Pipeline: 40 ending, 1 new starts
Top funder: Asian Development Bank at $3.2M
Stalest: World Bank Trust Funds (1996 days, last 2021-04-30)

Tonga Moderate risk (35)

$9.2M
90-day disbursements
58%
Top funder share
4819
HHI concentration
6
Active funders
New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (58%) · Asian Development Bank (38%) · World Health Organization (2%) · European Commission - Directorate-General for International Partnerships (1%) · Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (1%)
Data: 2/10 funders stale (20%)
Pipeline: 47 ending, 2 new starts
Top funder: New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Aff at $5.3M
Stalest: AidData (4672 days, last 2014-01-01)

Vanuatu Moderate risk (32)

$8.8M
90-day disbursements
46%
Top funder share
2864
HHI concentration
9
Active funders
European Commission - Directorate-General for International Partnerships (46%) · New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (23%) · United Nations Development Programme (9%) · World Health Organization (7%) · Asian Development Bank (7%)
Data: 4/10 funders stale (40%)
Pipeline: 55 ending, 8 new starts
Top funder: European Commission - Directorate-G at $4.1M
Stalest: Millennium Challenge Corporation (2604 days, last 2019-08-31)

Marshall Islands Moderate risk (31)

$3.2M
90-day disbursements
61%
Top funder share
5109
HHI concentration
5
Active funders
United Nations Development Programme (61%) · Asian Development Bank (38%) · Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (1%) · World Health Organization (0%) · New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (0%)
Data: 1/10 funders stale (10%)
Pipeline: 24 ending, 1 new starts
Top funder: United Nations Development Programm at $1.9M
Stalest: Australia Aid (474 days, last 2025-06-30)

Tuvalu Moderate risk (30)

$942K
90-day disbursements
55%
Top funder share
3853
HHI concentration
6
Active funders
Asian Development Bank (55%) · New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (26%) · European Commission - Directorate-General for International Partnerships (11%) · Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (6%) · United Nations Development Programme (2%)
Data: 2/10 funders stale (20%)
Pipeline: 29 ending, 1 new starts
Top funder: Asian Development Bank at $519K
Stalest: World Bank Trust Funds (686 days, last 2024-11-30)

Samoa Moderate risk (29)

$15.8M
90-day disbursements
43%
Top funder share
2848
HHI concentration
7
Active funders
New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (43%) · Asian Development Bank (26%) · European Commission - Directorate-General for International Partnerships (14%) · United Nations Development Programme (12%) · Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (4%)
Data: 3/10 funders stale (30%)
Pipeline: 48 ending, 4 new starts
Top funder: New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Aff at $6.7M
Stalest: AidData (4672 days, last 2014-01-01)

Micronesia (Fed. States) Moderate risk (29)

$1.2M
90-day disbursements
46%
Top funder share
3479
HHI concentration
5
Active funders
Asian Development Bank (46%) · World Health Organization (35%) · New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (10%) · United Nations Development Programme (7%) · Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (3%)
Data: 2/10 funders stale (20%)
Pipeline: 34 ending, 0 new starts
Top funder: Asian Development Bank at $566K
Stalest: Department of Defense (2481 days, last 2020-01-01)

Solomon Islands Moderate risk (27)

$12.1M
90-day disbursements
52%
Top funder share
3288
HHI concentration
8
Active funders
Asian Development Bank (52%) · New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (16%) · United Nations Development Programme (11%) · World Health Organization (11%) · European Commission - Directorate-General for International Partnerships (5%)
Data: 2/10 funders stale (20%)
Pipeline: 58 ending, 9 new starts
Top funder: Asian Development Bank at $6.4M
Stalest: UN Pooled Funds (1386 days, last 2022-12-31)

Papua New Guinea Low risk (24)

$45.7M
90-day disbursements
32%
Top funder share
1950
HHI concentration
11
Active funders
Asian Development Bank (32%) · European Commission - Directorate-General for International Partnerships (24%) · United Nations Development Programme (11%) · UNICEF (9%) · World Health Organization (8%)
Data: 3/10 funders stale (30%)
Pipeline: 96 ending, 5 new starts
Top funder: Asian Development Bank at $14.5M
Stalest: AidData (4672 days, last 2014-01-01)

Fiji Low risk (24)

$44.7M
90-day disbursements
35%
Top funder share
2896
HHI concentration
9
Active funders
United Nations Development Programme (35%) · European Commission - Directorate-General for International Partnerships (29%) · UNICEF (29%) · New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (4%) · AFD (3%)
Data: 1/10 funders stale (10%)
Pipeline: 102 ending, 9 new starts
Top funder: United Nations Development Programm at $15.7M
Stalest: Australia Aid (474 days, last 2025-06-30)

Rankings

Most concentrated

Highest HHI — most dependent on few funders

CountryHHI (top funder)
Niue10000 (top: 100%)
Palau6649 (top: 80%)
Marshall Islands5109 (top: 61%)
Nauru5001 (top: 62%)
Tonga4819 (top: 58%)

Most diversified

Lowest HHI — broadest funder base

CountryHHI (funders)
Papua New Guinea1950 (11 funders)
Samoa2848 (7 funders)
Vanuatu2864 (9 funders)
Fiji2896 (9 funders)
Solomon Islands3288 (8 funders)

Stalest data

Highest share of funders with data older than a year

CountryStale funders
Niue6/10 (60%)
Nauru4/10 (40%)
Cook Islands4/10 (40%)
Kiribati4/10 (40%)
Vanuatu4/10 (40%)

Most pipeline pressure

Highest ratio of ending activities to total active

CountryEnding / active
Tonga47/284 (17%)
Fiji102/650 (16%)
Nauru20/128 (16%)
Micronesia (Fed. States)34/224 (15%)
Samoa48/330 (15%)

What this means

A country where one funder dominates is not necessarily at risk — it may simply reflect that funder’s geographic focus. But it does mean that a budget cut, a policy change, or a publication delay at that single funder has an outsized effect on both the country’s aid picture and on what anyone can see of it.

The data staleness dimension matters because concentration that you cannot see is worse than concentration you can measure. When the largest funder’s data is a year old, the concentration numbers here are already wrong — they describe the data, not the reality.

Pipeline pressure — activities ending without replacement — is the forward-looking risk. A country with high concentration, stale data, and programmes ending is one where the next six months are largely invisible.